Bearish on wanting to live due to Citi Bulls**t
sigh I’m not sure what to say, not sure what to write. I would go about defending my thoughts on the stock, but that’s not going to help anyone (and by anyone I mean me). I made an error the other day, when I had the opportunity to sell at a profit or nearly breakeven between my Apr08 and May08 puts. I didn’t take advantage of that opportunity and today I lost a lot of money, both in realized and unrealized form. This post isn’t going to be filled with humor and wit, it will be filled with stats and facts and figures, along with some clear reasoning why Citigroup shouldn’t be at $25+ a share. This is all to help me relax and convince myself that my reasoning is correct even if my stock trading is not.
To start I want to say that GOOG really did a great job killing the puts and rewarding the calls today. There’s stories already being lied about in regards to people saying they bought the $510 calls yesterday at $0.50 and sold them today at $30.00, which would work out to an astonishing profit percentage. I’m not sure if anyone posting about that gain is telling the truth, but it would be great for those that did it. Alright, onto C.
I’ve been pretty accurate on my business observations of C. I knew they would miss earnings. I realized they would talk about layoffs. There was little doubt to me the company would declare a loss, though I have no idea how much. Here’s one of the quick Dow Jones news briefs:
Citigroup Inc. (C, $25.67, $1.64, 6.82%) reported a first-quarter loss of $5.11 billion, or $1.02 a share, deeper than Wall Street had expected, but the write-downs were far lower than some analysts’ estimates. Revenue of $13.22 billion was also better than expected. Analysts’ polled by Thomson Financial, on average, had expected the firm to report a loss of 95 cents a share on revenue of $12.8 billion.
C lost $5,110,000,000. That’s a pretty big loss. That’s for a quarter, or three months period of time. That’s a lot of money. $5.11 billion is higher than the GDP of 69 different countries on the planet Earth. It doesn’t matter how big or small your company is, that’s still a lot of money to lose. If the company I work for had a profit 1/10th that big, I would be a multi-millionaire.
You’ve heard of P/E right? For those of you that have not, P/E is a price-earnings ratio which is calculated by dividing the market value per share by the earnings per share. Here are a few P/E raios listed below:
different industry
GOOG P/E = 40.59
MSFT P/E = 17.07
AAPL P/E = 35.38
blue chips
CVX P/E = 10.63
T P/E = 19.35
MRK P/E = 26.99
C competitors
JPM P/E = 12.34
WFC P/E = 13.08
BAC P/E = 11.68
C - Citigroup
C P/E = 40.72
What is my point? C has a P/E that rivals GOOG! That’s too retarded to be even considered retarded. That’s moronic.
Well, my account is extremely depleted now. Though it has been near this point, I’m not sure that I will be able to come back from it like I did previously.
End of day positions:
End of day balance:
14 Responses to “Bearish on wanting to live due to Citi Bulls**t”
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Hiding sharp objects in office, and playing Indian rap music to cheer up suicide trader.
Michael,
Actually the stories about GOOG are true. If you purchased April 500 Calls, you went from paying about $45-70 Thursday and were able to sell for at least $3k today. Rather sick if you ask me but that’s the life of an options player. Sadly, I wasn’t one of them. Bastards.
Jerome won’t let me use a stapler in the office either.
Jorge, I know the mathematics behind it but without any evidence, most of the people saying they did it are full up crap.
on a bright note, when options expire worthless you don’t have to report it to the VO!
gl on your comeback…you didn’t once before
I’ll buy this site for $2… Deal?
-DT
Wish in one hand and poop in the other, then see which fills up faster.
What’s with the proposed robbery there DT? I paid 10,000 times to join the VO, why don’t you offer me at least half my money back?
I’m still very much a novice trader, and lord knows I’ve had my share of big losses while I am still learning the ropes. Best advice I’ve heard so far - doesn’t matter how ‘right’ you are; the market can stay irrational for longer than you can stay solvent.
You came back before, I know you can do it again. Good luck!
edit: i meant to say u did it once b4 (not u didn’t)
btw, i’ll give $3 if DT is the next target of a retard attack!
Hmm… a Retard Attack on the relatively secret DT? I’m not sure if I’d lose my $10k deposit in the VO, but for $3 I’m willing to do nearly anything (I know those photos will eventually surface).
This is why I really dislike trading with options. The market has an uncanny way of delaying what it’s supposed to do. Plus options expiration day is heavily manipulated to reduce the value of the majority of outstanding options, which should be puts. I wouldn’t be surprised if the market tanks next week.
Options are risky animals. I’m sure there were folks who made a killing with cheap Google calls- as sure as I am they they will eventually give their gains back to the market by continuing to buy hi risk out of the money options.
Well, on the bright side, you and Lindsey are close to being on even footing. Does she have plans on returning to trading?
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i mentioned that the market has baked in 20B write down when you first took the trade.. a 12B write down? No problem, Chitty up 6%.
Chitty was up like 17% for the week. Friday’s close wasn’t actually that bad in comparison to the rest of the week. I had my chance to exit and didn’t take it, it was stupid of me.
I’m not sure what will happen this week. I’m hoping that AAPL doesn’t carry the market anywhere with earnings this week, I could enjoy a big drop in the market.