EOD quiet for me
I held on to my 50 Citigroup puts today even though there was an opportunity for me to break even and cover the commission (per put : $1 buy, $1 sell), but I didn’t take that opportunity. I still feel as though C will drop and when it does, I don’t want to be holding onto cash, even if it is worth a little more today than it was yesterday (the USD is going upward which means something). How long can I hold onto C? Well…
The truth is that I’m less patient than a crack addict in mid-stride or a 13-year old prodigy turned prostitute. Thankfully I was kept entertained by a fellow Retard post about Top ten politically incorrect sources of pollution, or I would have gone more crazy than I already am.
As I read different blogs, written by human beings, it seems that one believes the market will go down and the other that the market will go up. Unfortunately at this point, C will most likely travel with the market flow, so I’m hoping for a drop of great proportions.
Because of my ignorance, I won’t be covering or selling for a loss here. I’m going to ride this one to profits or total loss. This might sound stupid to you, but it’s just my way. Those that doubt that I am really a Retard will see that it’s true, I am a little slow and impeded.
The market moved around today but ended just a little higher, which is actually showing decent strength considering it started the day negative and climbed up and down a few times. I’m not going to quote you the VIX or TRIN or TICK or McClellan Oscillator numbers because I feel that would show too much intellect on my side and I don’t want to bring myself up and later disappoint. I believe disappointing from the start is the best way to go.
Alright, someone buy me a beer so I can relax the rest of today and just work at the 6-5 job.
End of day positions:
End of day balance:
2 Responses to “EOD quiet for me”
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dude, you have to be careful with this. The street has actually factored in a $20B writedown for C, so if the writedown is lower, C would go up. If it very much higher, C would also go up as the proverbial throwing in the kitchen sink applies.. like what happened to UBS. Do your homework abt the US$20B thingy as i thought i read it somewhere when UBS announce the big ass write off.. i like your blog, 6k left is not bad.. just don’t lose the kitchen sink ok.
Thanks sage08, I appreciate the info. Actually, I’m not sure about any expected $20B write off, but considering the stock has fallen from it’s 52-week high to less than half value, and the company stock is valued at over $120B, there are some serious numbers to question.
From last November (when Charles Prince ran away):
Citigroup said it expects to write down $5 billion to $7 billion after taxes — roughly three or four months of profit — for its $55 billion of exposure to U.S. subprime mortgages. The writedown equals $8 billion to $11 billion before taxes, and may rise if markets worsen, the largest U.S. bank said. Citigroup’s previous $6.5 billion write-down related to subprime mortgages, loan losses and other debt.
Oppenheimer stated they expect a much bigger expected loss for Citigroup.
Citigroup is having their earnings call on April 18th. Of course, that’s OE (options expiration) so the Apr08 options will be semi-dangerous to be in during that time. The earnings call is at 8:30am (approx).
As you point out, intelligently so, the stock could go up. Of course, the logic would be that since Citigroup is holding onto $55B in subprime, there’s a greater chance for disappointment than success.
UBS came clean about most of its positions, the street expected worse. But check out what happened to LEH, they dropped 50% and didn’t announce anything… it was brought down because BSC was leveled and word on the street was that if BSC fell, they would drag LEH with them by association/likeness.
There are countless stories about how much Citigroup will lose… here are one, two, three, four.
I’m going to hold and wait.. I would pray, but that would be against my religion.